Wednesday, April 26, 2006

If I Were President Putin

Chairing the G8 is a big deal. And a lot of flaks. Tony Blair found a way. This week, the World Bank announced the $37 billion debt relief for 19 poor countries....all traceable to Gleneagles.

The Russian Chairmanship should do something dramatic and fundamental, especially in its sphere of immense comparative advantage: Oil & Gas. We do not have enough details of its energy agenda yet - on which they had some meetings recently in Moscow. But we know that so much muck is being splashed around by its own customers from the Baltics to the Caucasus to Europe. Problem? Huge and rising energy costs, caused by high oil prices; and Moscow's legitimate desire to earn market rates for its exports.

The world economy is in a bind as far as oil prices are concerned. With China and India joining the American guzzling gang, and the kind of distorted weather wraths we now induce, the costs will only keep rising! OPEC has no extra capacities to exploit in the immediate term. And Russia, with its huge endowments, is not in OPEC....though they cooperate.

If I were President Vladimir Putin, I will use this G8 Meeting to change the world of energy for the New World. And make a few daring exploits with concessions. Here is how:

1. To secure the future of world trade, and the prosperity of Europe, Moscow should grant concessionary rates for its GAS deliveries to all its customers. They need the relief so that they can tackle the environmental problems, especially weather-related like the floods, and more so in Eastern Europe.

2. Russia should lead the G8 to thereafter get OPEC to fix a special rate for crude so that poorer countries can survive, and the debt-relief from Gleneagles may endure. They would soon relapse, otherwise, in the face of current spiralling oil costs.

3. To focalize the search for long-term solutions to this problem, and to preserve something for future generations, the G8 must join OPEC to establish the Global Task Force for Millennium Alternative Energy with a 10-year mandate, under the authority of the UN Security Council. It should learn from, and extend the gains of, the International Space Station.

4. Moscow should bring other oil-producers into a better alliance that will work with OPEC to grant special Tax Credits to airlines and the maritime operators, under WTO, from January 2007. This should guarantee travels and shipments - both necessary for global production and world unity.

5. Moscow, no matter the imputation, should create a unique portfolio for the energy needs of the former Soviet Union members. Their collective history, well highlighted by the Chernobyl memories in Ukraine this week, cannot and should not be wished away. Just do it! What's more: the kids, today and tomorrow, need it.

6. Learning from Chernobyl, the G8, under this chairmanship, should lead the way on the critical safety & security conditions for the re-emerging global rush/return to nuclear energy. It must be water-tight and cross-cutting.

7. If I were President Putin, I will clean up the anti-foreigners saga that is smearing the nation's image, by a tiny group of Russians. I will release those in jail for what has been rightly or wrongly termed political persecution, or personal vendetta. I will use my huge popularity to build a formidable successor-machine, having wisely rejected calls for regime/term elongation, and free up the media space.

8. If I were the Russian president and chair of G8, I will do the unthinkable: Get the presidents of Iraq, China and America to join me at home for a private get-together in May. Then, I will bring them plus the Iranian spiritual leader to an official meeting at the Kremlin in June. After that, we will hold a special security conference with India, Israel, Turkey and Pakistan in attendance! Agenda? Hey, give me a break! If you know not, by now, please return to Mars!!!

9. I will create and endow The Russia-Africa Council in a unique mould, to secure our own patch and ensure due balance in the ongoing inevitable rush for the continent's millennium resources. I will also do The Russia-South America Council for similar purposes.

10. It is now time to formally transform the G8 into G11 by binging China, India and Brazil into the club. Moscow should lead the negotiation, with a 2008 deadline.

11. As the Russian president with huge oil & gas "windfall" earnings, I will promptly pay off all foreign debts and boost the country's stakes in all international bodies, especially the World Bank and IMF as well as the European/Asian/African/Latin American Development Banks.

12. Finally, if I were Vladimir Putin, I will look forward to joining Bill Clinton on the international stage as an elder statesman, working for world peace, the prosperity of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and selling Russia at large. And I will do so courageously, creatively and compassionately,like Jimmy Carter & Mikhail Gorbachev rolled-in-one.

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

If I Were In The EU Leadership

There is a rare gem of a politician and leader who may be lost to premature retirement or even resentment. Tony Blair, the innovative, courageous and combative British Prime Minister, is on his way out. Having helped to create New Labour and led the party to three successive general elections, he has bowed to voter-bashings over the Iraq misadventure to announce that he would not stand in the next election. Heir-apparent and prime minister-in-waiting Gordon Brown, his soul mate and finance minister of 10 years, is warming up. Rightly so.

The media is agog with news, gossips, theories and conspiracies about the goings-on within the government and the party at large for and against the early departure of Tony Blair. No matter. May it all end sensibly and sensitively. Both the party and its leader need that. The country must get its due.

As we have seen over the years and around the world, Bill Clinton and Tony Blair are good leaders with their fair share of human failings and trajectories. Clinton is now doing so much good around the globe, like Jimmy Carter before him, and Nelson Mandela out of office. I see Blair in that mould. Except that we need a different way of utilising his immense talent and boundless energy. A way that preserves his legacy and friendship with his party and successor. He is also still young, to boot. Yes, a creative and new way.

If it were possible, he should be the next UN Secretary General. No chance, I hear. And I can understand. The best job for him now is something I suggest is begging to happen: Help the EU transform Europe. Give it any title you like, the kernel is that Europe needs an extra-ordinary intervention package for the new millennium. Using former national leaders has served it well. In Tony Blair, it should reap the same. I think he can help Europe restructure, redesign, retool and reposition over the next five years.

As Transformation Czar, he will bring commitment, courage, content and competitiveness to the block. He will help secure the UK's full embrace of the EU, especially with Gordon Brown in charge. I believe that he can sell the New Europe to the younger generations of Europeans, and help other member states see the need for urgent reforms. And the gains therefrom.

The world needs the EU for balance and security. The EU needs to wake up to the challenges of this millennium in all aspects of its ways and means. No choice. The embattled EU Constitution needs a new salesman. That man, I strongly suggest, is Tony Blair.

If I were in the European Union Leadership, I would move to get Blair out of the way of any acrimonious parting of ways with his party, and whisk him to Brussels with his reputation still in place, so he may serve a wider mandate on a unique world stage. Neither Europe nor the United Kingdom should waste Tony Blair. No!

Friday, April 14, 2006

If I Were President Thabo Mbeki

There are some things that only families can do. That was why Nigeria was in the fore-front of the liberation movement in Africa. From Angola to Mozambique, Zimbabwe to South Africa, Namibia to Lesotho, and elsewhere, we stood with our brethren and funded their just struggles for independence and self-determination. Now, Big Brother is floundering. Nigeria needs help. Urgently.

If I were President Thabo Mbeki, a distinguished alumnus of the Nigerian Flank/Post of the SA/ANC Liberation Representatives, and now a leading African statesman, I would intervene speedily in the spiralling political brohaha in the country. It is all about two of his friends - President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Subject matter, and crux of the matter? Obasanjo's seeming determination to elongate his tenure in office, which should expire next May, and their political party - PDP's determination to achieve it through a very unpopular crass manipulation of the constitution-amendment process. The PDP has insensitive and unbelievably brazen in its quest. Like most citizens, Atiku opposes. And like all potential candidates for president, he fearlessly disagrees with party and president on this dastardly bid.

The administration has become touchy, tempestuous and intolerant. Security agencies are now perceived as partisan attack dogs of the regime: against anyone and everyone who differ or dissent. The polity is heating up. Things are quite precarious. Even the fearless and independent Nigerian Press, which is veteran of democracy battles, is being pilloried by the pro-Third Term (as they are tagged) apologists. The National Assembly is polarised and under siege, while some thieving state governors seem to be spared investigation/prosecution so that they may help the party attain its tenure-elongation agenda. As I write, the national electoral commission is yet to commence any visible preparations for the 2007 elections! No law. No funds. Nigeria is at a very dangerous crossroads.

Courageously, some politicians have now declared their presidential ambitions. Good news. The worry, however, is that the Third Term bid hangs ominously over their campaigns and the nation's serenity, as well as our deserved march on the path of democracy and good governance. With its history of political in-fighting, violence and vulcanic tendencies, the PDP poses grave tension as things stand. This tension is palpable. All of which can be dispelled, instanta, by only one man: Olusegun Obasanjo! We must now help him to help us.

If I were President Mbeki, I will enlist Former President (Papa) Nelson Mandela, Retired Archbishop (Papa) Desmond Tutu, Former President (Papa) Kenneth Kaunda, Former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, Former Chancellor Willy Brandt, Former Commonwealth Sec-Gen (Papa) Emeka Anyaoku, Former World Court Judge (Papa) Bola Ajibola and UN Sec-Gen Kofi Annan to persuade and prevail upon Chief Olusegun Obasanjo to please WITHDRAW his interest and involvement in the Third Term project, and free the political cum electoral space, NOW.

As one African Family, the Mbeki/Mandela factor should help. The pressure should come from a cast of distinguished elderstatesmen, led by a sitting president with a shining armour in the subject matter. So, if I were Thabo Mbeki, I won't wait one more second. I will ACT right away:
the untainted, traditional African way. Today!